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<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.3/JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xml:lang="en">
  <front xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="elibrary">33407</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Construction of Unique Buildings and Structures</journal-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>Строительство уникальных зданий и сооружений</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">2304-6295</issn>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">10</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18720/CUBS.22.10</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Changes of maximal flow regime in Arctic</article-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>Изменения режима максимального стока в Арктике</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Shevnina</surname>
            <given-names>Elena</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
          <email>eshevnina@gmail.com</email>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="aff1">Russian State Hydrometeorological University</aff>
      <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2014-07-20">
        <day>20</day>
        <month>07</month>
        <year>2014</year>
      </pub-date>
      <issue>7</issue>
      <issue-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">22</issue-id>
      <fpage>128</fpage>
      <lpage>141</lpage>
      <self-uri xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" content-type="pdf" xlink:href="https://unistroy.spbstu.ru/userfiles/files/2014/7(22)/10_shevnina_22.pdf"/>
      <abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p>For the Russian Arctic territory, expected changes of multi-annual maximal flow statistics is estimated for the period of 2010-39. Results are obtained for the climate scenarios SRES:A2, SRES:A1B and SRES:B1 for four projections from Global Circulation Models. The method of the long-term estimation of the multi-annual maximal flow statistic is based on stochastic model of a spring flood flow with regional adaptation. For the most part of Arctic, the significant changes of the multi-annual maximal flow are expected. Regions with expected significant changes in multi-annual mean values and variation coefficients are outlined. In such zone, the correction of maximal discharge “upper-tail” valuesis recommended. Examples of maximal dischargesof 1 % probability of exceedance are shown for two catchments.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
        <kwd>long-tern estimation</kwd>
        <kwd>multi-year statistics</kwd>
        <kwd>maximal flow</kwd>
        <kwd>climate change</kwd>
        <kwd>construction design</kwd>
        <kwd>the Russian Arctic</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
