Changes of maximal flow regime in Arctic

For the Russian Arctic territory, expected changes of multi-annual maximal flow statistics is estimated for the period of 2010−39. Results are obtained for the climate scenarios SRES: A2, SRES: A1B and SRES: B1 for four projections from Global Circulation Models. The method of the long-term estimation of the multi-annual maximal flow statistic is based on stochastic model of a spring flood flow with regional adaptation. For the most part of Arctic, the significant changes of the multi-annual maximal flow are expected. Regions with expected significant changes in multi-annual mean values and variation coefficients are outlined. In such zone, the correction of maximal discharge «upper-tail» valuesis recommended. Examples of maximal dischargesof 1% probability of exceedance are shown for two catchments.