Probabilistic and statistical approaches to accounting for non-simultaneity of heat inputs from people in public buildings

Cooling systems of public buildings are often designed with a significant power reserve. This is due to two reasons. Firstly, the loads are calculated based on aggregated indicators; secondly, there are no methods for calculating the cooling loads of buildings in the regulatory literature. One of the components of the heat balance of buildings during the warm period of the year is heat gain from people. In public buildings, heat gain from people is usually taken to be equal to the number of employees and visitors specified in the design documentation. At the same time, the absence of some employees at their workplaces due to their being on vacation, business trips, or working remotely during the calculated period of the year is not taken into account. This leads to an overestimation of heat gain from people in the cooling load of the design object. In this study, two approaches are considered - probabilistic and statistical, which allow for the correct consideration of the absence of some employees at their workplaces by introducing the appropriate simultaneity coefficient. When establishing the electrical loads of the designed object, the use of simultaneity coefficients is a common design practice. However, when justifying the loads on the refrigeration system, such an approach is not established by law. This leads to an unjustified overestimation of the refrigeration loads of public buildings and a corresponding increase in the cost of the building. The approach proposed by the authors allows, in part, in terms of more correct accounting of heat input from people, to reduce the unjustified reserve load and thereby reduce the costs of installation and operation of the refrigeration system of the building.

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